2022/17

09 May 2022 - 15 May 2022 week Bitcoin & Economic News

May 15, 2022

TL;DR
Nayib Bukele: “El Salvador just bought the dip!”
Auto division of Japanese financial giant SBI now accepting Bitcoin
Coinbase is ready to confiscate their clients deposits
Brazil’s Nubank just bought Bitcoin
Shanghai High People’s Court has declared Bitcoin is a legal virtual property
Emirates has announced plans to add Bitcoin as a payment method
Norwegian Bitcoin mining ban bill was downvoted

Nayib Bukele: “El Salvador just bought the dip!”
Nayib Bukele, President of El Salvador bought the dip as he posted on twitter. He bought 500 Bitcoin for his country with an average price of ~$30,744. I think these steps prove how patriotic he is! Great move!
Last week and this week too we started with good positive Bitcoin news. Hope this trend will continue next week too!
Auto division of Japanese financial giant SBI now accepting Bitcoin
SBI Motor Japan, a cross-border subsidiary of SBI Holdings specializing in Japanese used-cars through e-commerce, is accepting bitcoin and another shitcoin providing accessibility to the unbanked, according to a press release.
“Crypto asset remittances use the blockchain (distributed ledger), so even if the banking system stops functioning, as long as the Internet is operational, remittances can continue to be used without being affected by the failure of an exchange,” SBI said in the release.
Coinbase is ready to confiscate their clients deposits
Last week in my newsletter I wrote about Goldman Sachs’s first bitcoin backed loan client was Coinbase. I wasn’t surprised about it and I even mentioned the following possible cause on “why?”:
“(2) Coinbase lost on some shitty trades too much and they need to gain those losses back (hope not).”
This week the following news came out: ”Coinbase posts net loss of $430 million for Q1 2022” and when the sinking ship started to sink faster you won’t surprise on the following:
“NEW DISCLOSURE IN COINBASE 10-Q AFTER EARNINGS: 'IN THE EVENT OF A BANKRUPTCY, CUSTOMERS COULD BE TREATED AS OUR GENERAL UNSECURED CREDITORS' “ by FXHedge
I think in nearly every newsletter I mention why you should never ever trust an exchange or bank to hold your coins. If the message above is not enough, you are hopeless!
Brazil’s Nubank just bought Bitcoin
The big guy (Warren) just swallowed Rat Poison! Brazil's Nubank just bought Bitcoin for its balance sheet with 1% of its treasury. Warren Buffett is a shareholder in Nubank.
Just read the following recent message from Michael Saylor:
“The Bitcoin price is set by those with more money and less knowledge than you. In time, they will get the knowledge and you will get the money.”
Warren got knowledge! Soon you will get the reward for it!
Shanghai High People’s Court has declared Bitcoin is a legal virtual property
This is a huge shift in the Chinese mentality! Just think about the recent Bitcoin mining ban, you couldn’t imagine that after 1 year they will declare Bitcoin as a legal virtual property!
The court’s notice read, “In the actual trial practice, the People’s Court has formed a unified opinion on the legal position of Bitcoin, and identified it as a virtual property.”
“….has a certain economic value and conforms to the property’s attributes, the legal rules of property rights are applied for protection.”
While this news emerged the Bitcoin price was below $30K, so the people have not noticed the importance of this shift change.
Emirates has announced plans to add Bitcoin as a payment method
Emirates is the largest airline in the UAE, so you won’t wonder when I say that there must be a large governmental intention behind making Bitcoin as a payment option.
Funny not, how wealthy (I mean really wealthy) companies are opening to Bitcoin when the price is below $30K? I think this is what shows how big is the upward potential in the Bitcoin price, so really don’t sell on this level!
Norwegian Bitcoin mining ban bill was downvoted
A bill seeking to ban energy intensive mining for cryptocurrencies like bitcoin was struck down by the Norwegian parliament on May 10.
The proposal surfaced earlier this March by the Red Party (Rødt) which formed in 2007 from a merger between the Red Electoral Alliance and the Workers' Communist Party. The Red Party outlines one of its primary goals as achieving a classless society, and was supported by the Socialist Left Party and the Green Party.
“We are obviously disappointed with the majority here. In the future, we will electrify large parts of society. If we do not want to carpet Norwegian nature with wind power, we must actually prioritize what the power is to be used for,” Rødt's Sofie Marhaug said to E24.
Are you surprised? Communists always want to tell what to do with the already paid electricity. Next time your washing machine will be on the list.

Global Economic News

TL;DR
The Buffet indicator still shows that the global stock market is overpriced
The ECB balance sheet hit another ATH
Nasdaq is hitting the bottom?
Is the S&P 500 still not in a bear market?
U.S. (official) inflation is 8.3% in April (UPDATED!)
Energy crisis in Europe?
Saudi Aramco became the world’s most valuable company

The Buffet indicator shows that the global stock market is still overpriced
“Even after the MSCI World has lost 16% from its peak, stocks are still not really cheap if you use the Buffett ratio, which divides the global stock market cap by the global GDP. With 122%, the Buffett indicator is above the 100% threshold.” By Holger Zschaepitz
Meanwhile “Global stocks have lost another $2tn in mkt cap this week as the tech bubble continues to lose more air and as investors digested first 50bp rate hike from the Fed in 20 years, rising bond yields. All stocks are now worth $103tn, equal to 122% of global GDP.” by Holger Zschaepitz
To put things into perspective:
“$35 TRILLION in global market value erased since the beginning of the year. That's 14% of all global wealth. Includes the $1T losses in crypto. For reference - 2008 was a 19% decline.*
* Doesn't include non-financial assets such as housing.” by @cullenroche
The ECB balance sheet hit another ATH
“ECB balance sheet hit another ATH because the bond-buying program will run until at least July regardless of high inflation. Total assets rose by €12.5bn to €8,796.1bn, equal to 82% of Eurozone's GDP vs Fed's 37%, BoE's 40% and BoJ's 137%.” by Holger Zschaepitz
Nasdaq is hitting the bottom?
“Only 16% of Nasdaq stocks are trading above their 200-day MA. Getting close to levels of prior market bottoms (2002, 2009, 2018, 2020). Still won't call it, but if you like watching these indicators, here we are “ by Liz Young
“The Nasdaq 100 plunges >3% following disappointing inflation numbers and horrible high-profile tech/momentum earnings. Nasdaq 100 falls deeper into bear market territory. Quoted now 28% below the all-time high!” by Holger Zschaepitz
Is the S&P 500 still not in a bear market?
“The S&P 500 is still not in a bear market. Has only lost 18.5% from the top.” by Holger Zschaepitz
Based on my purily technical chart analysis, I can agree with Holger because this can be just a correction in the uptrend. I think at the end of the Summer we will be wiser.
U.S. (official) inflation is 8.3% in April (UPDATED!)
Most articles are written with the following addition:”above expectations”, really? I think at the end of this year the official CPI will be way in the double digits and the real inflation will be over 50-60% in the U.S.
Please don’t forget that, what “they” said about the inflation: “Transitory was Transitory”
(UPDATE: “Breakdown of US inflation rates in the latest CPI report…” by @CharlieBilello)
Energy crisis in Europe?
“European natural gas prices jumped >13% as disruptions to a key transit route through Ukraine and a move by Moscow to retaliate against sanctions ramped up the risk of supply cuts. Power prices (1y forward) hit highest this year!” by Holger Zschaepitz
Saudi Aramco became the world’s most valuable company
According to BBG, Saudi Aramco posted its highest profit since its record IPO after oil prices surged in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Aramco, which last week surpassed Apple to become world’s most valuable listed comp, made net income of $39.5bn, up from $21.7bn.
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Bitcoin price speculations

These are just speculations, no investment advice!

“Bitcoin monthly RSI below 50 and ~50% below ATH (green)” by PlanB

“Bitcoin current structure since all time high, overlayed with the 2014 Bear Market” by @MatthewHyland_

“Short Term Holders realized price (light blue) below 2Y holders realized price ~$40K (dark blue). The question is: will STH (and thus BTC) drop to realized price level of ~$24K (black) like 2011, 2014 and 2018?” by PlanB

“Capitulation Events (Past 5 Years) Losses - BTC Denominated (10-Day Period)

🟥 952k | March 12-21, 2020

🟧 841k | Nov 28 - Dec 7, 2018

🟩 760k | Jan 31 - Feb 09, 2018

🟦 465k | May 17-26, 2021

🟪 326k | Jan 22-31, 2022

🟨 291k | May 1-10, 2022” by @TheRealPlanC

“Reason why you are not buying BTC below 30k now, is the same reason why you did not buy BTC at 4k during Mar2020 covid bottom, or 3k during Dec2018 bear market bottom: FEAR. Fear that BTC could drop to 20k. But 3k, 4k or 5k does not matters now. Nor will 20k, 30k or 40k in 2yrs.” by PlanB

“Time for some hopium. We have been in 30k-60k range for 1.5yrs now. But the first time we were at 30k (Dec 2020) BTC was overbought (weekly RSI ~90). Second time at 30k (Jul 2021) BTC market was neutral (RSI ~50). Now at 30k BTC is oversold like peak covid fear Mar 2020 (RSI 34).” by PlanB

“Confluence Floor Model Bitcoin
May 12 | 0:00 UTC (Glassnode Daily Close)
Price | $28,900 Floor Model | $27,688” by @TheRealPlanC

“Bitcoin offers good assurances of store of value up to the 200 week moving average. Above that there might be volatility. Today the 200WMA is at $21800.” by @zndtoshi

“Today for a brief moment we touched the floor. “ by Root

“The 4th Great Bull Run starts. Each time the 2W Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) reaches the -0.20 level, a Great Bull Run starts. It has just reached this level since the second last candle, so it is confirmed.” by @AurelienOhayon

“Now the Bull Run.” by @AurelienOhayon

“The Bull Run WILL START. This is NOT the time to be bearish. Indicator : 2W Ultimate Oscillator (UO).” by @AurelienOhayon

“Yesterday, the Bitcoin market sold off to $25.4k, and within 6% of the Realized Price ($23,960). The realized price represents the average cost basis of all BTC, and was last visited, only briefly, in March 2020. Historically it has been a strong support for Bitcoin.” by @glassnode

“These guys are going to break the chart soon enough.” by @JohalMiles

“Bitcoin days per range” by @ChartsBtc

Bitcoin Shorts

Funny Bitcoin short stories

“Bitcoin block rewards from 50 BTC to 1 satoshi. We're so early.” by Bitcoin Magazine
“Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index is 10 - Extreme Fear
Current price: $29,287” by @BitcoinFear
“Bitcoin City is coming along beautifully“ by Nayib Bukele, President of El Salvador (Pictures in the thread)
“Don’t look at all time highs. Look at yearly lows.” by @Sooly_Kobayashi
“When people ask me, “what’s happening with Bitcoin!” I show them this picture and say we are early. Relax. Hodl. Go outside.” by Jason A. Williams
Jack Dorsey: Bitcoin will "always gain in value" as user adoption grows.
“Bitcoin is the most important computer science invention since the internet.” - U.S. Senate Candidate Bryan Solstin